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John Wayne's Holster: Is Rudy the GOPs Best Hope?
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Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Is Rudy the GOPs Best Hope?

Uniter or Divider?

Although the 2008 Presidential election is still over a year away, the campaign trail is heating up. It seems that just about everyone in Washington with a pulse and a bank account has formed a Presidential Exploratory Committee. Despite the large slate of candidates from the two major parties, some feel that the nominations may be wrapped up already.

New York Senator Hillary Clinton seems to be the shoe-in for the Democratic nomination. Only one real question remains. Who will be her running mate?

On the other side of the aisle, many traditional conservative candidates have thrown their hats into the ring, such as Senator Sam Brownback (Kansas), Governor Mike Huckabee, (Arkansas), and Rep. Tom Tancredo (Colorado). However, none of these guys seem to be making any headway. Former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich is still lurking in the shadows, but as on now, he has not declared his intention to run.

The two guys everyone seems to be talking about are Arizona Senator, John McCain and former New York mayor and 9/11 hero, Rudy Guiliani. But neither of these guys could fairly be described as strong conservatives. Nevertheless, it appears that one of these guys is going to get the nomination.

If the primaries were held today, Guiliani would probably get the nod. In fact, a recent editorial on by Ben Shapiro makes the point that it is Guiliani’s nomination to lose. The preference for Guiliani is also borne out in a recent Rasmussen poll, that shows Guiliani leading all Republican candidates with a 70% approval rating.

When matched head to head with Hillary Clinton, Rudy again comes out on top (52% to 43%).

Sounds like great news for the GOP, right?

I wouldn’t get my hopes up just yet. It is still early. A lot can happen between now and the primaries. In addition, Rudy is not a clean candidate. Yes, Rudy is strong on defense, and the way he conducted himself on 9/11 will be a strong feather in his hat - for both liberals and conservative voters alike. But Rudy also has a dark side which may hurt him as we get closer to election time. Many conservatives, particularly evangelical Christian conservatives, are going to have some major problems with Rudy’s character and his position on some of the issues.

For starters, Guiliani has been divorced, not once, but twice. That may not seem like a big deal to some, but for evangelicals it is. And its not just the fact that he was divorced that is at issue here. Guiliani began having a public affair with his present wife, Judith Nathan, while he was still married to his previous wife, Donna Hanover. Moreover, his divorce with Hanover was public and ugly.

And let’s not forget his former business partnership with former New York City police commissioner Bernard Kerik, who pleaded guilty to ethics violations. Although Rudy was not implicated in any of Kerik's legal problems, his ties to Kerik do not fare well for him.

Guiliani also holds some liberal views on key issues that are vitally important to conservative voters. Rudy supports gun control, conservatives support the NRA. Rudy supports a woman right to choose, conservatives want to overturn Roe v. Wade. Rudy is soft on immigration, conservatives want to build a fence and send the national guard to the border. Rudy supports same sex civil unions, conservatives want to protect the sanctity of marriage. Did I mention that Rudy wears drag? The list goes on…

This raises a serious issue about Guiliani’s ability to win. The GOP, if Guiliani is their candidate, better hope that conservatives think it is more important to keep a liberal democrat (Hillary) out of the White House, than to have a strong conservative in it. That may very well happen, as Ms. Clinton is a very polarizing personality. But then again, it may not! The GOP must be wary.

If conservatives, particularly the evangelical wing of the party, vote according to their conscience, that may very well split the Republican vote between Rudy and some other third party candidate. Can you say President Hillary?


At 12:31 PM, Anonymous Roy said...

HMMM? I'm not as sure of Hillary's primary victory just yet. Although it will be extremely tough for another Democrat to beat her.

However, I do think any "anti-Hillary" campaign will fail. The any body but Bush strategy failed in '04; the anti-Clinton campaign failed in '96 and I see no reason to believe it will work this time. People must be able to promote a candidate that they can follow not oppose a candidate.

While I'm inclined to agree with most of Giuliani's stances, minus his gun control, I am no Giuliani fan. He was a Mayor, A MAYOR!

I like McCain, if he does not win the nomination, I might be inclined to vote for the Libertarian candidate like I did in the mid term election. No way in hell I vote for Brownback, Huckabee, or Tancredo.

As horrible as this sounds, I also would not vote for Romney mostly because of his religion. I am somewhat troubled by my opposition strictly because of his relgious beliefs but it seems that Mormons beliefs are so far out there that I cannot support him. The "Book of Mormon" is only a few hundred years old and was "buried" in the ground in America, a new book of the bible??? How can they believe this? Not that I believe in the bible but at least its thousands of years old.

That being said, I won't support any candidates that run on their religion (Brownback, etc...) perhaps not even any evangelicals.

Sorry to use your blog as a rant! But I do envision a Democrat victory in '08.


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