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John Wayne's Holster: Will Cheney Step Down To Set Up 2008?
John Wayne's Holster
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Saturday, February 18, 2006

Will Cheney Step Down To Set Up 2008?

I know it is early in 2006, but it is not too soon to start talking about the 2008 race for the White House.

Bush can not run. Cheney says he will not run. As such, this will be the first election since 1952 that does not feature an incumbent. With no incumbent, the race will be wide open. No one has stepped forward in either party to lock up the nomination.

Many feel that Senator Clinton (NY) will get the Democratic nod, but that is not set in stone. Some feel she is not electable, as she is a polarizing personality with little crossover appeal. Sen. Clinton has been making an attempt over the last year to recreate herself as a moderate, but we will have to wait and see how successful she has been. John Kerry and Al Gore still appear to have aspirtations to run, but it is unlikely that they will get the party endorsement due to their image as election losers. Sen. Joseph Liberman (CT) has also been mentioned as a possible candidate, but their does not appear to be much enthusiasm for him from the far left faction of the Democratic party - the guys holding the purse strings.

The situation on the Right is not any clearer. A lot of names are being dropped by beltway pundits – McCain, Guiliani, Rice, Brownback, Frist - but no one seems to have much support at present. Ideally, the GOP would like to find someone to carry over Bush’s agenda on Iraq and Middle East. The GOP has a lot invested there presently, and as WSJs Peggy Noonan points out, Bush’s legacy as President will be decided there.

As things stand now, the next election is a toss-up. Both parties will be looking to get a leg up on the other. One GOP strategy that has begun to circulate on the Op-Ed pages and in the blogosphere is the idea of replacing VP Cheney with a fresh face (here, here, or here). This, in effect, could allow the GOP to pick a possible successor to the Presidency – or perhaps even tip the electoral balance to the Right. This has absolutely nothing to do with Cheney’s performance as VP or his recent hunting accident. It is more properly viewed as part of a strategy to keep the White House in GOP hands for the next four or eight years.

But who would the GOP pick? McCain and Guiliani both have crossover appeal, but neither has strong support with the party's religio-conservative base. Brownback is not widely know outside GOP circles. That leaves Frist and Condi Rice. Rice seems to be the odds on favorite at the moment, but it may be too soon to tell. In addition, most polls show her as presently unelectable. But it is early, and that could change. Things will likely sort themselves out over the next year. Stay tuned!


At 2:40 PM, Anonymous Roy said...

I really dont see the republicans as being that sneaky. I would love to be wrong on this one though. I thought Bush should have dumped Cheney last election and the VP would have been much more credible. I know it is unpopular but I would like to McCain get the nod. I think the democrat will be NM gov. Richardson. I hate to admit that I would be tempted to vote on the issue of race but would probably not do it. I would like to see a hispanic Pres.

At 1:23 AM, Anonymous Baldurs Gate said...

I saw George Allen (R-VA) the other day on Fox and I thought he looked presidential. He spoke in length about the current issues, and I was very impressed. If he decides to run, and it looks like he will; his chances are as good as anybody. If he can get past the initial primaries with a good showing, I can see the GOP pouring money into his campaign.

I do like John McCain, his war record and moderate agenda put him in good standing with both parties (maybe a little bit too moderate for the hard core right wing). He needs a little more charisma and a clear message that resonates with the American. Only time will tell if he can make a successful run.

Hillary is polarizing; the current Democratic polls bear this out. When asked if they would support her for President, a record 64% indicated that they would not support her if the election were to be held today. Those are some big numbers and cannot be ignored.

At 8:40 PM, Anonymous Joe Verica said...

Hey BG

I think you are onto something with George Allen. I have only heard him speak (C-SPAN) once or twice, but he does look and sound presidential. I recently saw a poll on either or that showed Allen to be the preferred choice among the 6 or 7 GOP candidates listed. I don't know enough about his politics at this point. I will be sure to look into him a bit more.


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